Wednesday , February 8 2023

Economic Bulletin 2019: GDP growth of 4.9% – business news


The economy is expected to increase by 4.9% in 2019, driven by the private sector, although the government is concerned about increasing global uncertainty.

Real GDP forecast for this year is up by 4.8%, after rising by 4.9% in January and June.

Solid growth is based on solid domestic demand, continued global growth and trading, steady expansion of electrical and electronic equipment, and higher oil prices.

"Despite the resilient economic performance, growth risks associated with an increase in the uncertainty of the global environment are at a disadvantage, including growing trade disputes, volatility in global financial markets and oil prices, and geopolitical tensions," he said.

Domestic demand growth is expected to fall from 5% this year to 4.9%.

Growth is based on sustainable private sector spending by 6.5% this year before falling to 6.4% next year.

Private sector spending remains the most important driver of growth and the government expects to reduce the impact of lower public sector funding this year and then release expenditure.

Private consumption, which accounts for 55% of GDP, will be supported by stable employment and wage growth, supportive financing conditions and benevolent inflation.

Private consumption will continue to grow in growth, up 7.2% this year, but will grow slower by 6.8% next year.

Private investment will continue to invest in the services and manufacturing sectors. This sector is expected to grow by 4.5% this year, accounting for 17.3% of GDP.

The government's move to reduce the deficit and reduce spending will reduce public spending, which will fall to 0.9% next year, up by 0.1% this year.

The most important reasons are lower investment by public companies, according to the report.

Public consumption is expected to grow slightly by 1% this year and will grow by 1.8% next year due to higher emoluments, benefits and services.

Public investment will continue to slow down to 1.5% this year and will slow down significantly by 5.4% next year, mainly due to lower government spending.

Gross national income at current prices is expected to grow by 5.6% this year to 1.4.4 billion forints.

Gross National Savings (GNS) is expected to grow by only 0.4% to € 387.8 billion, with the private sector accounting for 82% of total savings.

The savings-investment margin is expected to exceed the total investment, so the savings-investment margin should include a surplus of 2,5% and 3% of GNI, which would allow Malaysia to remain primarily from domestic sources finance its growth.

By 2019, the service sector is expected to grow by 5.6% to 6.3% this year, while production will grow from 4.7% to 4.7%.

Mining is expected to drop 0.7%, down 0.6 percent. Agriculture is expected to jump to 3.1% from 0.2%. Construction is expected to grow by 4.5% to 4.7%.

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