Wednesday , May 25 2022

Savers aims to earn 7% in dollars for 6 months with a financial bicycle



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In just one month, deposits in the pesos grew by $ 68,500 million, attracted by high interest rates and a new "dollar jerked"

He never went, he always comes back, like a legendary tango character. In the city of Buenos Aires, accustomed to the rise and fall of the economy, they know that a "financial bicycle" may have some withdrawal periods, but this is an inexorable period in which the "pressed dollar" will return as an anchor of the rest. variables.

And this is what is happening these days, when stability seems to be consolidated with the exchange rate policy and with the Central Bank that sends signals that it is not willing to overcome the issue of the pesos in order to defend the course. the price of the dollar.

It is true that investing in the short term in order to achieve a strong dollar gain has again become fashionable in the financial market, as evidenced by the high rate of growth of pesosos. Now, without Lebanese, most of the bets on savings are concentrated in time deposits.

It is true that this is not risk-free practice, because just as the Central does not defend the "floor", he did not accept the obligation to put a "ceiling" in case there is a trigger of the course.

Investors are very aware of the fact that in 2018 they were living a lane: most of last year, Lebaca – who became the market stars – suddenly lost their attraction when the currency crisis broke out.

As a consequence, even during the day, returns that were more than attractive at one time were largely outdone by a dollar advance in the period that lasted until the end of September.

In the same way, from the high inflation rates recorded during the greater part of the second and third trimest of the year, those that have become prominent are fixed UVA-adjusted terms.

Then, with the new monetary policy imposed by the Central Bank, the pressure on the course began to soften, as well as inflation in some way, which led to the revitalization of interests in interest rate instruments. , such as Lecaps or fixed deadlines.

Therefore, with the current levels of interest rate, which is added to a stable exchange rate and stuck in the band without intervention, the debate about the desirability of arriving at the financial bicycle again gets a central position.

The challenge is not less, especially considering that the investor who "gobble" for the peso in 2018 suffered significant losses, which in some cases reached 25% in dollars a year.

Stop, irresistible appeal

But on the basis of the government's political strategy based on the fact that the dollar no longer fires, and even more in the election year, and that BCRA is more careful than in the past, returning to a "financial bicycle" or "wearing" seems to have been chosen from small savers and big investors.

In the opinion of Matias Roig, director of the Personal Inversiones Portfolio, "since October 2018, it was very good to use high rates in pesos".

For his part, Daniel Artana, chief economist at FIEL, says depositors make the classic financial bicycle use the dollar at the bottom of the band and the interest rate above inflation.

However, he adds "Those who can not do this with the same fluidity as before, directly or indirectly through banks, are funds from abroad."

"If term deposits grow, it's because they somehow create carry a trade take advantage of a rate that looks attractive in relation to the expectation of the evolution of the course. It seems to me that the Central Bank is better managed, "he concludes.

Figures seem to confirm those estimates. Since the beginning of the "Plan of the Sanderis" in early October 2018, the average interest rate has accumulated an increase of 14%, while in the same period the dollar of $ 41.80 reached the current $ 38.50, 8%

With this bifurcation in the performance of both assets, the bike took a special moment, as the measurement in dollars gives a real gain of more than 24% in just three and a half months.

The higher dynamics of time deposits was confirmed from the data published by the Central Bank, as in the last month the balance of fixed maturities in the pesos grew by 10.9%, with the interest rate of 4% per month.

In monetary terms, the total amount of fixed terms that exactly a month ago amounted to $ 0.932 billion, became $ 1,034 billion, an increase of $ 101 billion. If this figure is compared with the total accumulated interest from mid-December, which is about $ 34,000 million, it was completed in only 30 days, new funds entered the system for the difference, or about 68,500 million dollars.

Part of these funds came from the expiry of the deposit with the UVA clause, which fell by almost 33% in the last 30 days.

It should be noted that the depositors mostly asked for conditions ranging from 90 to 179 days, which increased by 11.7% and the shortest (30 to 59 days), as they increased by 11.8%.

In a way, those who have bet on longer placement periods take into account the reasons that led to a reduction in yield:

  • Stability of the dollar
  • Increase of fixed-term shares by the public
  • Demand for loans.

In this regard, in the latest Monetary Report prepared by the BCRA, in accordance with December 2018, it is considered that "the interest rates paid for time deposits in pesos are reduced compared to November, reflecting the part of the change in the trend of LELIK rates." .

The report adds that "especially Badlar private banks ended December to 49.5%, or almost 2 percentage points below the end of November. A similar track was followed by a deposit rate of more than $ 20 million or TM20 private banks, which ended the year to 51.7%, accumulating a monthly drop of 3 percentage points. "

Already in January, this downward trend has consolidated, as according to the latest data, Badlar is at 45.5% and TM20 to 47.5%.

Regarding distribution by type of investor, those who first "saw" are those who manage assets over a million pesos, as their placements grew by almost 16%, compared to only 5.6% of retailers.

Looking forvard

According to the usual survey conducted by the Central Bank, REM, among various economic and financial analysts, all indicate that for the first half of the year, the average rate in the fixed term will greatly exceed the inflation – what is the measure under normal conditions, local investors take as a reference dollar, which is a reference for those from abroad.

In this respect, based on market consensus, it can be concluded that the accumulated interest rate for bank loans would be 20.6% by June, opposite to inflation of 14.7% and a dollar that would rise below 13%. %.

In this way, a financial bicycle would enable the yield of 5% in the pesos and 7% in dollars, for one semester. In other words, the return in dollars is difficult to obtain in other financial placements in the world.

Exactly, according to Roig, although "the reference rates that a retail investor has are mainly those that have LECAPS that are diminishing on the secondary market. Nevertheless, in the stability exchange scenario, the dollar on the floor of the band and the expectations of low inflation – they are still very attractive.

"Now, it's clear that there is a theme." timing It will depend on how international markets and the evolution of space behave, not only from an economic perspective, but also from a political one, which should be analyzed for the management of positions, "the expert adds.

In the same way, analysts from Banco Marive assume that "local currency investment looks attractive to investors who use solid currency investments as a reference, because we expect high asset rates in the pesos to overcome the devaluation of the pesos of change."

On the other hand, Balansz experts also look at transfer strategies with good eyes, because in their opinion, "the song will stay high and we expect the course to stay stable near the lower group, although we do not exclude jumps. Sporadically."

"According to this scenario, we recommend that the new streams be distributed at the rate of the pesos and that the benefits of the trade be used for at least a few weeks," they said.

The opinion of local analysts was recently added by CreditSuisse experts who believe that "even though the Central Bank no longer guarantees the minimum level of interest rate of monetary policy, the impression is that monetary policy will remain cautious at this time, in an effort to rebuild its credibility.

In that sense, they add that "we anticipate a gradual decline in the monetary policy rate to 40% at the end of 2019 from the current 59%."

For their prognosis, they feel positive that "by the middle of the year, the Central Bank set targets for the level of the monetary base and exceeded it from the current implementation of the regime in October last year".

In addition, they add that "we expect the program to continue in the coming months, which should help to suppress inflationary inertia, combined with the continued gradual elimination of energy subsidies and wage recovery."

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