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"We will win, you will be so sick and tired of winning," Donald Trump promised the campaign trail ahead of his election. And as the president stands for the first half-vote, a big test for Trump will be that the voters are weak or ill.
According to many measures, the US economy is below Trump. Unemployment since the invisible downturn since the first moon landing, stock exchanges are still close to record highs, business confidence is up, Trump trading agreements have come to be "unfair" to rewrite. On Friday, according to the government's latest work report, wages have risen since 2009 at the highest rates.
If Republicans vote on Tuesday and do better than Trump's unpopularity, then many experts will undoubtedly use the campaign proposal by James Clark, Bill Clinton's strategic designer, "This is the economy, the stupid one."
Trump is more difficult than the economic record. Polls show that economic issues become less important when the economy is firmly based.
Immigration can play well with the base, but the decision of the voters decides this choice and the economy is still a big issue. According to Gallup, in September, 13 per cent of US voters rated the economic issues as the highest priority, which is the same as immigration.
Voters may question the numbers while deciding who gets the vote. The climax of "Trumponomics" looks good. A deeper dive will reveal some inconvenience to the US economy, but the headlines may be enough to enable Republicans to take office.
Unemployment rate
The US unemployment rate reached 3.7% in September, the lowest since 1969. The United States has created jobs for 96 consecutive months since the record began to grow in the longest jobs. Most of these jobs were under Barack Obama's presidency, but he … he is no longer president.
Donald J. Trump
(@RealDonaldTrump)#JOBSNOTMOBS! VOTE REPUBLICAN NOW! pic.twitter.com/wso9ZHIvyF
But what job did they add to it? Wage growth has lagged behind rising employment since the recession, suggesting that jobs added by the United States are lower, and because of the decline in trade unions, employers continue to cross the paycheck market.
Mining brought 53,000 jobs last year; Trump campaigned for the "coal war". But compare it with health care where there are many low-paid jobs that give 302,000 jobs.
The evidence is in the pocket of the worker. According to the October Work Program, wages increased by 3.1% per year, the highest since 2009, but still well below the average of 4.2% before the 2001 recession.
Equity markets
Trump tweeted 67 times for stock markets – more than ten times as twitter as his daughter, Tiffany.
Under his presidency, Dow, S & P and Nasdaq reached record highs, fueled by 1.5 tons of tax cuts, aggressive deregulation and a growing global economy.
Donald J. Trump
(@RealDonaldTrump)The stock market has been intensified since the election, but now it pauses – people want to see what happens to Midterms. If you want stocks to slip down, I strongly suggest democracies. They love the Venezuelan financial model, high taxes and open borders!
He is now worried. As the Federal Reserve raises the exchange rates, the stock exchanges are shocked and Trump publicly attacked the Fed, making an unprecedented step for a presidential president. China's growth has stopped, Europe again looks troubled, some economists expect a recession next year.
And maybe Trump should worry if the stock market profits actually vanished. The top 10% of American households owned 84% of all stocks in 2016, according to a study by NYU economist Edward Wolff. This includes all shares that hold the lowest 90% in 401k retirement savings, university funds and other investments.
So while the stock exchanges emerged, the benefits disproportionately reached the rich. This is not the house boom that increased the wealth of many middle-income Americans while it held. But if the stock markets fall, they will inevitably make the bottom 90% likely to feel that companies lower their staff to cut costs to ease the already well-performing shareholders.
Trade
Trade wars "are good and easy to win," Trump announced in March before deploying the United States' largest trading partners to the largest trade dispute in the generation.
In order to be fair to the president, the trade problem was not as catastrophic as many predicted. And Canada and Mexico, the United States' largest trading partners behind China, are now working on the negotiating table and are preparing for a new business. But China is another question. Relations seem to be deteriorating. The EU, after a cease-fire in July, is still dark and has been debating the World Trade Organization.
In conversation with American business leaders, it is clear that most of Trump's commercial policy is not in favor of insecurity. At the beginning of the month, Caterpillar's manufacturing sector warned that Trump's tariffs increased its costs. Wisconsin cheese producers, American dairy capital, are pleased to note that Canada is negotiating on imports, but worried that the EU has taken advantage of the debate and that the negotiations are breaking down.
Commercial disputes are now paused because the intermediate endpoints are approaching but far away. And the US under Trump was not only after decades of free trade celebrated the protectionist bastion, but also a place where politics could be rewritten by a tweezer.
I give
Trump's tax cut of 1.5 tonnes is the only political result of the Presidency – and yet Republicans hardly mention it during the pre-election period. Most cuts have been business and rich people and polls show that voters have less confidence in Trump than before the bill.
Donald J. Trump
(@RealDonaldTrump)He was excited to be back home that the House handed over the big tax number, and the middle class gets a big tax cuts!#MakeAmericaGreatAgain??
Obviously aware that the initial tax package was goodbye to Hoi Polloi Trump now suggested "10% tax cuts for middle-income families … not business". The proposal does not seem to have much content. The last tax cuts helped boost the federal deficit to $ 1, and even the Republicans who decided that deficiencies did not count. But he admits that politically, for the average American, a tax plan that Trump called the "middle class account" did not work yet.
It is time for the insecure voters to get away from the fence, but it is too early to really evaluate Trump's record on the farm. Trade disputes are ongoing, the long-term impact of tax cuts is still being assessed. So this election cycle, regardless of whether the voters are weak or bad at Trump, is probably about their political intent rather than the economy. By 2020, we will better measure Trump's legacy, and we will know who actually won.
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