At a conference on China's 40-year reform and opening on Tuesday, Xi Jinping's keynote speech caused great concern and controversy. He once again emphasized the ideas of the leadership of the CCP and state-owned enterprises as Dahe's Marxist-Leninist faith. Some analysts said that the information he published incompatible or even contrary to the idea of ideological innovations and the environment of modern civilization, China's 40 years of reform and opening is relaxed and not controlled, and China has more freedom than larger chariots. . So, what does Xi Jinping tell us through this speech? Does he have to choose to be the leader of Chinese characteristics and the terminator of the reform, or to let China continue to enter the era and to integrate into the world?
The guests who participated in the discussion were:from the
Researcher Deng Yuven research team "China Strategic Analysis", political commentator Yokohama, political commentator, current analyst Chen Shakong.
Echoes: China has never had a systematic reform and opening up
A political commentator at Iokogawa believes that Xi Jinping's speeches generally have two points of view: one is to strengthen the leadership of the CCP, and the other to make no decisive change. These two points are also expected and have not made me more optimistic or pessimistic about the prospects for reform and opening up. Because the word of reform and opening is itself a false proposal. After the third plenary session of the Eleventh Central Committee in 1978, the reform and the opening began at that time. At that time, the reform and the opening were "relaxed" and "crossing the river by the sensation of stones". Reform and opening must have policies, but "relaxation" and "crossing the river by sensing rocks" are not specific policies. The CCP itself does not know what to do and what you do. After the eighties and all subsequent reforms and opening-ups, such as reforms to join WTO state enterprises, this was actually a problem of transferring funds, and a large number of people were fired. Later, medical reform, education reform and housing reform are essentially the looting of private wealth by the elite. So, China has never had a systematic reform and opening up. Since there is no hope for this reform and opening, there will be no so-called pessimistic or optimistic views.
Echoes: The economic situation has accumulated a total of four years of contradiction
The Yokohama said that the current economic crisis has indeed put a lot of pressure on Xi Jinping. Due to the reform of the CCP and its opening over the past forty years, it is most important to shift the legitimacy of its political power from revolution to construction. Before Mao Zedong used the way to continue the revolution to maintain legitimacy. Because of the decision, there must be a program. The CCP is a political power that combines politics and religion, so it must have the idea that leads. After reform and opening, economic development is used as a basis for the legitimacy of the regime. Accordingly, China has maintained a double-digit GDP growth rate for a long time, and then it will be "Bao 8". I recently suggested two figures on the Chinese GDP growth rate in Song Song, one is 1.67, and the other negative growth. In fact, this is a trend, from the past to the present. I think that this trend is directly linked to the overall leader's reformist ideology and opening over the past forty years. If the pace of reform takes place well, the economy should be getting better and better. So, I think that the current economic situation is a total outburst of all the contradictions accumulated over the past forty years. And now there are no other alternatives, nationalism can certainly not, because it is a sword with a double-edged sword, and it is ultimately likely to strike. So now there is definitely a series of economic policies, but these measures are not really "reforms".
Chen Broken: Political elders release the signals of discontent, Xi Jinping knows how to show diversity
Political writer Chen Pokong believes that because some of the physical conditions are not visited by older people, the outside world can understand, but such a collective failure to attend is a signal. A year ago at the 19th National Congress, or when Xi Jinping began his second mandate, these political elders failed to support Xi Jinping. However, from the two CPPCC NPC meetings in March this year, Xi Jinping amended the Constitution to cancel the presidency system. It is estimated that this operation did not reach a consensus within the party, so many political veterans were not present. This time, the 40th anniversary of reform and opening, the absence of an elder is also a sign of dissatisfaction. Due to the commemorative meeting of the thirtieth anniversary of the reform and the opening ten years ago, the older were collectively attended and supported. This time I did not attend, but I expressed my dissatisfaction with the internal and external policies of Xi Jinping. This time, Xi Jinping had to understand this, and before this commemorative meeting made a compromise gesture to political veterans and announced that he had won a major victory in the fight against corruption, that is, he would not continue to deal with high-level corruption. Eat security. In his speech at the conference, he also expressed his good intentions to these political elders, thanks to Deng Xiaoping, on the credit of Jiang Zemin and Hu Jintao, and the slogan hanging in the Great Hall of the People is also the theory of Deng Xiaoping, Jiang Zemin One represents "important Thinking "and the scientific concept of Hu Jintao, and then Xi Jinping's thought. This is exactly the opposite of his practice of "Jiang Hu" in the last few years, trying to "catch Mao Chao Deng". This proves that Xi Jinping is not only frustrated with the prestige of the nation, but also has had great losses within the party. All this caused the atmosphere inside and outside the commemorative meeting.
Chen broken: Xi Jinping lacks thinking, mistakes and mistakes, does not understand the economy, but monopolises economic power
Chen broke the statement that Professor Renmin's speech at the Song Song caused a huge sweep in the home network, and in the end, relevant information was erased by the authorities. In fact, his speech was very honest and he suggested to the authorities that they should have the ability to think. Speaking of the ability to manage, one of them is the ability to think, that is, the ability to correct mistakes, the ability to confuse in any case. At the end of the cultural revolution, from Hua Guofeng to Deng Xiaoping, Hu Iaobang and Zhao Ziiang, everyone had the opportunity to correct the mistakes. But after forty years of reform and opening, it seems that the authorities have now lost this ability. Although it continues to change when it comes to knowing errors, it's just a language. At the bottom of the heart they are self-sufficient and stubborn. According to Deng Xiaoping, dogmatism, everything begins with books, and now it faces a crisis of party and country death. In fact, the two figures referring to Matsushita are not far from what we originally estimated, because the data released by the CCP is the only one. When Xi Jinping assumed the economic power at the beginning of the judgment, I and many of my colleagues were not optimistic, and now I am unhappy. Because in the history of the Chinese Communist Party after Mao Zedong was the Secretary General of the Party, the Prime Minister of the State Council was in charge of the economy, and the era of Jiang Zhu was the same in the period of Hu Ven. But in Xi Jinping's era, he assumed the economic power of Prime Minister Li Kekiang. In the past two years, Xi Jinping left the party and government and established "party management". The first five years were the Xi Wang era. This king is Vang Kishan. That is, the Secretary General and the secretary of the Central Disciplinary Disciplinary Committee. The other five years are still "Xi Wang" era. This king is Wang Huning, Secretary General of the Secretary General and General Director of Ideology. He believed in managing the country and he was the only one who came to the top. Now he believes that Deputy Prime Minister Liu He can manage all economic problems. He also pointed to Liu Hea and foreign leaders that he is the person I most trust. But you can believe in the main ability to see, or his team has the ability. Thus, the defeat of the Chinese economy today is not only a general trend and an economic cycle, but also because Xi Jinping does not understand the economy at all, but must monopolize economic power.
Deng Yuan: The opening ceremony of the conference, the ambition of Ksi remains unchanged
Deng Iuven, a research team in the Chinese strategic analysis, said that Xi Jinping's pressure within the party must exist, but I mostly see it from criticism and denial of the Cultural Revolution, and not from its affirmation of the achievements of its predecessors. Since this is considered to be a party practice, at the commemorative meeting of the fortieth anniversary of the reform and opening, it is certainly impossible to fully observe the achievements of hereditary leaders. Because he had previously suggested that "two or three decades before and after each other do not deny" and revised textbooks, the Cultural Revolution is described as a turning point and a change of party on the path of hard research. Therefore, he clearly admitted that the mistake of the Cultural Revolution should be a compromise between the party and the social pressure. But I do not think this pressure is so great that it can shake the base of power. In fact, the commemorative meeting of the fortieth anniversary of the reform and opening is a declaration of the ideology of the CCP. Most of the nine experiences of Xi Jinping's 40 years of reform and opening up included ideology. For example, we must support the leadership of the party, support Marxism, adhere to dialectical materialism, adhere to the socialist system and roads with Chinese characteristics, and so on. In addition, he mentioned a decisive reform of the reform that can not be changed. The so-called unchangeable thing in this case is definitely something about the political system. In fact, I feel that Xi Jinping's speech is very angry and that it is the answer to the US Vice President's speech in September this year. In other words, you want to do what I do not do, what can you do with me? In addition, Xi Jinping's ambitions for the world remain unchanged. He continues to mention the Chinese program and the Chinese way as an experience and guidance to other developing countries. Now, it seems that the outside world thinks Xi Jinping very reluctantly convenes this commemorative meeting, but I think he is really very willing, because he should tell the entire society and the international community through this speech that I am still the boss.
Deng Yuwen: Xi Jinping does not understand the crisis, blind self-confidence, how to cross the waves?
For a long article published in the New York Times article on the Internet in the past few days, Deng Yuwen said that the content of this article was written before the 19th National Congress, but it was inappropriate for people to post on the land. In fact, political reforms that are constantly being mentioned are absolutely impossible. Some people say why not ask for more detailed things in seven tips, but what is the use? That's why I will try to state something I can do and put it on his side to make progress. When some content is promoted, it will eventually have its "life". But to be honest, I feel that although I have already expressed my opinion from his perspective, he will not accept it. Before the General Assembly's 40th anniversary, I fully watched the 30th anniversary of the reopening of Hu Jintao. On the contrary, what I have most impressed on is that Hu Jintao had a full sense of crisis for the status of the house that the party faces. Although it can not be changed, it can fully grasp a lot of things. There is no such thing as Xi Jinping. In his eyes, although the party faces various crises, such a crisis is simply not enough to change the "progress" of the party. It has progressed in the past, it has advanced and is still progressing in the future. Therefore, his speech also mentions "four self-confidence," and the party must lead everything. But in the case of the party leading everything, the reforms that the outside world expects are naturally impossible. Regarding China's GDP growth, I combine the research of other officials and national scientists. Personal assessment is 3 ~ 4%, which is not 1.6% suggested by Matsuzaki. Yesterday I published an article "Chinese 40-year experience and lessons in Reform and Opening" on the Chinese website "Financial Times". It was mentioned that legitimacy is provided to the CCP, one is nationalism, and the other is economic growth. It all depends on the growth of GDP because it has to make a big cake. Since the Chinese economy has reached the second place in the world, the current rate of economic growth is unlikely to reach past levels. In addition, the previous period of weakening and the lack of economy led to a severe economic crisis. The "private economic theory" in the previous phase has led to disturbance of people, and these factors together led to a sharp economic downturn in the second half of the year. Both officials and national scientists believe that the next two or three years will be the hardest time for China's economic development. As mentioned in his speech, the future can be confronted by stormy waves. Let's see how this stormy wave has been spent.
IouTube video:Focus dialogue: China reopened for 40 years, and Xi Jinping's "leader of Chinese characteristics" has a great controversy