According to the ZPP, Poland faces a real problem that relates to the risk of a significant slowdown in the economy, which can lead to the outflow of more than half a million workers from Ukraine to the west of Europe.
In its position on the website, the Association pointed out that the dynamics of labor migration to Poland from the East has significantly decreased. "According to MRPIPS data, in the first half of 2018, 13 percent fewer declarations of intent to entrust the work to a foreigner were registered, than last year, which is a reversal of the trend over the past several years, that is, a continuous increase in the number of registered declarations" – emphasize.
The ZPP reminded that the introduction of Western countries for workers from Ukraine on visa-free travel on June 11, 2017 meant that in the first month the new EU border regulations passed visas without over 95,000 Ukrainians. The association has pointed out, however, that since then the citizens of Ukraine do not need a visa to enter the territory of the EU, this right is limited to 90 days in half a year, and trips can be made for business, tourism and family purposes.
As the ZPP stressed, Germany is preparing to open the market for employees outside the EU. "The German government wants to increase the influx of skilled labor and adapt it to the needs of the labor market, and the main goal is to provide employees with vocational education," said Katarzina Niemijska of ZPP. "Germany, as part of a quick and simple process, is to recognize the qualifications acquired outside the EU, as well as to perform major promotional activities that encourage them to work and provide support in learning the German language," she added.
The ZPP stressed that the implementation of the labor market plan by the Germans will affect the Polish economy. According to the trade unions, this can result in a large number of Ukrainian workers residing in Poland and deciding to move to the West.
According to ZPP estimates, in a moderate scenario assuming an outflow of 500,000 immigrants from Ukraine from the labor market, a possible loss of GDP will amount to 1.6%, which makes up one third of GDP growth in 2017. "In the context of the inevitable economic slowdown, this loss would be even more serious," he added.
According to the Association's experts, avoiding the outflow of employees will be possible thanks to "creating a coherent migration policy that is largely focused on the wise absorption of economic migrants from proven directions." "Since 2016, we are calling for a coherent migration policy, taking the maximum simplified procedure for the employment of Ukrainian citizens and other people whose representatives are already working in Poland and contribute to the creation of GDP" – said Jakub Binkovski from the ZPP.
In his opinion, the next step in the economic context related to filling shortcomings in the labor market is to create a transparent way for exercising the right to permanent residence, and then – citizenship for immigrants from the eastern border of Poland.
As we read in the ZPP memorandum, "according to the estimates of the National Population Council, by the year 2050, Poland should accept 5 million economic migrants in order to maintain the current pace of economic development."